Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Understanding and Shaping Globalization

Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Understanding and Shaping Globalization Joint Economic Forecast 2/2026 24.09.2026 Recovery under structural stress – fiscal policy on slippery ground News 18.09.2026 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas to receive 2026 Bernhard Harms Prize News 03.09.2026 © stock.adobe.com | Yellow Boat Autumn Forecast Kiel Institute: German economy overcomes recession—structural deficits remain All News Statements Statement 16.09.2026 Raise once, then wait and see — the Fed shouldn’t chase the oil price Statement 10.09.2026 A single rate hike is appropriate — but a series of hikes is not Statement 27.08.2026 Real wage growth faces a setback Statement 08.07.2026 German defence budget 2027: a lot of money, the wrong priorities Statement 17.06.2026 The Fed should hold rates steady - Stagflationary risks dominate Chairman Warsh's first decision Statement 11.06.2026 Price pressures are broadening – the ECB must act now All Statements Kiel Institute for the World Economy The Kiel Institute aims to be Europe’s preeminent research institute for global economic affairs, combining cutting-edge research on par with leading economics departments with visible and lasting policy impact on the national and international level. About us Become a supporting member Career Kiel Institute for the World Economy Kiellinie 66 24105 Kiel Kiel Institute for the World Economy Chausseestraße 111 10115 Berlin Events 15 Oct 2026 6th MERICS European China Conference Critical Raw Materials, Critical Situation: Dependencies of the Defense Industry Berlin By invitation 03 – 04 Nov 2026 Joint Conference Kiel Institute and CEPR in Berlin 5th Kiel-CEPR Conference on Geoeconomics Auswärtiges Amt By invitation 30. Nov – 01. Dec 2026 Conference 2. Industrial Policy Lab Annual Conference: Industrial Policy in an Age of (Geo)strategic Competition KfW Niederlassung Berlin By invitation All Events Frequently Requested Experts Prof. Dr. Lena Dräger European Union & Euro, Monetary Policy Prof. Dr. Moritz Schularick Economic & Financial Crises, Financial Markets, Globalization, … Prof. Dr. Cathrin Mohr Geoeconomics, Political Economy Dr. Wan-Hsin Liu Business Cycle, China, Foreign Direct Investments, … Prof. Dr. Julian Hinz Globalization, International Trade Prof. Dr. Christoph Trebesch Economic & Financial Crises, Fiscal Policy & National Budgets, International Finance Prof. Dr. Sonja Peterson Climate, Natural Resources, Sustainable Development Prof. Dr. Tobias Heidland Africa, Emerging Markets & Developing Countries, Globalization, … Prof. Dr. Stefan Kooths Business Cycle, Economic & Financial Crises, European Union & Euro, … Prof. Holger Görg, Ph.D. Companies, Foreign Direct Investments, Globalization, … Dr. Klaus-Jürgen Gern Business Cycle World, Fiscal Policy & National Budgets Prof. Dr. Wilfried Rickels Climate, Natural Resources Prof. Dr. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe Business Cycle, Fiscal Policy & National Budgets, Tax Policy Prof. Dr. Dirk Dohse China, Geoeconomics, Innovation and Structural Change, … All Experts Datasets The Kiel Institute collects unique data on the world economy and global affairs. Here you can access and download our datasets and visualizations for free. Ukraine Support Tracker German Real Estate Index (GREIX) Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor nordwärts-Dashboard Kiel Military Procurement Tracker Africa Monitor Open Data Hub Ukraine Support Tracker Open Tracker German Real Estate Index (GREIX) Open Index Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor Open Monitor nordwärts-Dashboard Open Dashboard Kiel Military Procurement Tracker Open Tracker Africa Monitor Open Monitor Topics War against Ukraine International Trade Economic Outlook Africa China Climate and Energy Economic Policy in Germany All Topics Research centers Research Center Macroeconomics Research Center International Finance Research Center Trade Research Center International Development Research Center Global Transformation Researchinitiatives Defence Economics Initiative Africa Initiative China Initiative Geoeconomics Initiative Kiel Centre for Globalization Current Research Papers Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (JAERE) forthcoming Journal Article From Gross to Net: Carbon Dioxide Removal in an Analytic Climate Economy Meier, F., Quaas, M., Rickels, W., Traeger, C. Management Science forthcoming Journal Article No gifts returned: Surprise bonuses reduce productivity in a natural field experiment Bogliacino, F., Grimalda, G., Pipke, D. PDF Journal of the European Economic Association forthcoming Journal Article Wealth and Its Distribution in Germany, 1895-2021 Albers, Thilo N. H., Bartels, C., Schularick, M. PDF The Review of Economics and Statistics forthcoming Journal Article Inflation Literacy, Inflation Expectations, and Trust in the Central Bank: A Survey Experiment Dräger, L., Nghiem, G. The Review of Economics and Statistics forthcoming Journal Article Trade From Space: Shipping Networks and The Global Implications of Local Shocks Heiland, I., Moxnes, A., Ulltveit-Moe, K.H., Zi, Y. Journal of Political Economy forthcoming Journal Article The Safety Net: Central Bank Balance Sheets and Financial Crises, 1587-2020 Ferguson, N., Kornejew, M., Schmelzing, P., Schularick, M. Management Science forthcoming Journal Article ‘Crowding Out’ or ‘Crowding In’? How Idea Evaluation Affects Idea Generation Among Decision-Makers Schnier, J., Raasch, C., Schweisfurth, T. Journal of Finance forthcoming Journal Article Superstar Returns: Spatial Heterogeneity in Returns to Housing Amaral, F., Dohmen, M., Kohl, S., Schularick, M. PDF Journal of Development Economics 09/2026 Journal Article FDI Spillovers in History: Interwar Japanese “Zaikabo” investment in China’s cotton spinning industry Görg, H., Okubo, T., Strobl, E., von Ehrlich, M. PDF American Economic Review 03/2026 Journal Article The Price of War Federle, J., Meier, A., Müller, G.J., Mutschler, W., Schularick, M. Journal of Economic Perspectives 10/2025 Journal Article China’s Lending to Developing Countries: From Boom to Bust Horn, S., Reinhart, C.M., Trebesch, C. Journal of Development Economics 09/2025 Journal Article Place-based Policies and Household Wealth in Africa Amalitinga Abagna, M., Hornok, C., Mulyukova, A. All Research Papers